Containing Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Agents
Identifieur interne : 000136 ( 1957/Analysis ); précédent : 000135; suivant : 000137Containing Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Agents
Auteurs : Ira M. Longini ; M. Elizabeth Halloran ; Azhar Nizam ; Yang YangSource :
- American Journal of Epidemiology [ 0002-9262 ] ; 2004.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Antiviraux (usage thérapeutique), Bioterrorisme, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Flambées de maladies (), Grippe humaine (), Grippe humaine (mortalité), Grippe humaine (transmission), Humains, Modèles théoriques, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Processus stochastiques, Simulation numérique, Sujet âgé, Vaccins antigrippaux (usage thérapeutique), États-Unis d'Amérique (épidémiologie).
- MESH :
- mortalité : Grippe humaine.
- usage thérapeutique : Antiviraux, Grippe humaine, Vaccins antigrippaux.
- épidémiologie : États-Unis d'Amérique.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Bioterrorisme, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Processus stochastiques, Simulation numérique, Sujet âgé.
- Wicri :
- geographic : États-Unis.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Antiviral Agents (therapeutic use), Bioterrorism, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Influenza Vaccines (therapeutic use), Influenza, Human (mortality), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Influenza, Human (transmission), Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Stochastic Processes, United States (epidemiology).
- MESH :
- chemical , therapeutic use : Antiviral Agents, Influenza Vaccines.
- geographic , epidemiology : United States.
- mortality : Influenza, Human.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks, Influenza, Human.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Bioterrorism, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Stochastic Processes.
Abstract
For the first wave of pandemic influenza or a bioterrorist influenza attack, antiviral agents would be one of the few options to contain the epidemic in the United States until adequate supplies of vaccine were available. The authors use stochastic epidemic simulations to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis to contain influenza. In this strategy, close contacts of suspected index influenza cases take antiviral agents prophylactically. The authors compare targeted antiviral prophylaxis with vaccination strategies. They model an influenza pandemic or bioterrorist attack for an agent similar to influenza A virus (H2N2) that caused the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957–1958. In the absence of intervention, the model predicts an influenza illness attack rate of 33% of the population (95% confidence interval (CI): 30, 37) and an influenza death rate of 0.58 deaths/1,000 persons (95% Cl: 0.4, 0.8). With the use of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, if 80% of the exposed persons maintained prophylaxis for up to 8 weeks, the epidemic would be contained, and the model predicts a reduction to an illness attack rate of 2% (95% Cl: 0.2, 16) and a death rate of 0.04 deaths/1,000 persons (95% CI: 0.0003, 0.25). Such antiviral prophylaxis is nearly as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Vaccinating 80% of the children aged less than 19 years is almost as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Targeted antiviral prophylaxis has potential as an effective measure for containing influenza until adequate quantities of vaccine are available.
Url:
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwh092
Affiliations:
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ISTEX:0FA2E85C7E82451E11572374C9D72D1025DA71B6Le document en format XML
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Epidemiol.</title><idno type="ISSN">0002-9262</idno><idno type="eISSN">1476-6256</idno><imprint><publisher>Oxford University Press</publisher><date when="2004-04-01">2004</date><biblScope unit="vol">159</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">7</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="623">623</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="633">633</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0002-9262</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0002-9262</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Antiviral Agents (therapeutic use)</term><term>Bioterrorism</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infant</term><term>Infant, Newborn</term><term>Influenza Vaccines (therapeutic use)</term><term>Influenza, Human (mortality)</term><term>Influenza, Human (prevention & control)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Stochastic Processes</term><term>United States (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Antiviraux (usage thérapeutique)</term><term>Bioterrorisme</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Flambées de maladies ()</term><term>Grippe humaine ()</term><term>Grippe humaine (mortalité)</term><term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Nourrisson</term><term>Nouveau-né</term><term>Processus stochastiques</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Vaccins antigrippaux (usage thérapeutique)</term><term>États-Unis d'Amérique (épidémiologie)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="therapeutic use" xml:lang="en"><term>Antiviral Agents</term><term>Influenza Vaccines</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>United States</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="usage thérapeutique" xml:lang="fr"><term>Antiviraux</term><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Vaccins antigrippaux</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>États-Unis d'Amérique</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Bioterrorism</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infant</term><term>Infant, Newborn</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Stochastic Processes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Bioterrorisme</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Nourrisson</term><term>Nouveau-né</term><term>Processus stochastiques</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Sujet âgé</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>États-Unis</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">For the first wave of pandemic influenza or a bioterrorist influenza attack, antiviral agents would be one of the few options to contain the epidemic in the United States until adequate supplies of vaccine were available. The authors use stochastic epidemic simulations to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis to contain influenza. In this strategy, close contacts of suspected index influenza cases take antiviral agents prophylactically. The authors compare targeted antiviral prophylaxis with vaccination strategies. They model an influenza pandemic or bioterrorist attack for an agent similar to influenza A virus (H2N2) that caused the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957–1958. In the absence of intervention, the model predicts an influenza illness attack rate of 33% of the population (95% confidence interval (CI): 30, 37) and an influenza death rate of 0.58 deaths/1,000 persons (95% Cl: 0.4, 0.8). With the use of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, if 80% of the exposed persons maintained prophylaxis for up to 8 weeks, the epidemic would be contained, and the model predicts a reduction to an illness attack rate of 2% (95% Cl: 0.2, 16) and a death rate of 0.04 deaths/1,000 persons (95% CI: 0.0003, 0.25). Such antiviral prophylaxis is nearly as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Vaccinating 80% of the children aged less than 19 years is almost as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Targeted antiviral prophylaxis has potential as an effective measure for containing influenza until adequate quantities of vaccine are available.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M. Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M. Elizabeth Halloran</name><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><name sortKey="Nizam, Azhar" sort="Nizam, Azhar" uniqKey="Nizam A" first="Azhar" last="Nizam">Azhar Nizam</name><name sortKey="Yang, Yang" sort="Yang, Yang" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yang" last="Yang">Yang Yang</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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